Comment from WingX:
In terms of flight activity, we are projecting that European business aviation trends, compared to 5-Year averages, are going to stagnate at around 20% below normal until Jan, pick up to around 15% below, improve to 10% below-trend in the Spring, and within 5% during the summer, although we still expect some seasonal virus concerns to hold back a full recovery until Spring 2022. Scheduled Airline activity is going to have a much weaker recovery in Europe, with even the ‘vaccine’ scenario seeing at least 30% demand-suppression in 2022 and no full recovery before 2024.
The UK is at the negative end of this projection in our view because its relatively more severe economic recession (now a double dip), and of course the hard Brexit risk.
Nov 1-15 2020 vs 2019 business aviation (jets and props) sectors and hours, European countries
Jan-Nov 2020 vs same period 2019, UK business aviation (jets and props) sectors, 7D trend
Nov 1-15 2020 vs 2019 business aviation (jets and props) sectors and hours, UK airports
Jan-Nov 2020 UK Business, Scheduled and Cargo Aviation (jets, props, pistons) all sectors